Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Predicting the 2009 Oscar Winners

I have lots of problems with the Best Picture Nominees this year, including the non-nomination of by far the most popular movie of the year, and the rampant recency bias. But it's still fun to predict the winners. Here are the IMdB votes broken down by demographic:

Last year I found that although There Will Be Blood had a higher overall rating than No Country for Old Men, No Country had higher ratings in two key categories: Males over 45 and Top 1000 Voters. These correspond roughly to what pretentious old men like, which is basically the same people who vote on the Oscars.

Although Slumdog Millionaire is far and away the favorite to win the Oscar, with over an 87% chance currently at InTrade. It is however, only tied with Frost/Nixon in the key two metrics of Top 1000 Voters and Males Aged 45+ at 8.2 and 7.4 for Slumdog and 8.1 and 7.5 for Frost/Nixon, respectively. The Reader has them both beat at 8.2 for Males 45+ and 7.5 for Top 1000 voters.

Since it would be such an upset, I feel justified in making the prediction that either Frost/Nixon or The Reader will win Best Picture, upsetting Slumdog Millionaire. You heard it here first.