Sunday, July 20, 2008

How far will The Dark Knight drop?

So I've promised not to discuss too many specific issues, but I've heard too much about the Dark Knight to not comment. Right now it's 9.7 on it's specific page and 9.5 on the top 250 page (see here for why) with 46,000 votes. This is good enough for number one on the overall list, by a fairly high 0.5 margin.

As crazy as it may sound, none of this is highly unexpected. Even without the Dark Knight Chris Nolan movies average an unweighted 8.02, and that number will jump more if you weigh it. It's also worth noting that each of his three heavily funded movies are staples in the top 250. Christian Bale also does well on imdb, since 2002's Equilibrium his 9 movies have average an impressive 7.7 unweighted score. And when you factor in Heath Ledger's death and the fact that this is his last movie, the potential is explosive.

The question now is how much the movie will drop, and at what rate it will do so. I'm curious to see, and I may keep track of its decay. Right now my prediction is that the score will even out to the midpoint of the top 250 score (currently 9.5) and the score of the top 1000 voters (currently 7.9). That would put the movie at 8.7, somewhere between #15 and #22 on the overall list.

But yes, it will drop. Wall E dropped, No Country for Old Men dropped, There Will Be Blood dropped. They always drop. You will see.