Sunday, November 18, 2007

Modern-Day Warfare

Excellent analysis of how terrorism will play out in the 21st century over at Robert Greene's blog. He references late 19th century Russia, which he claims spawned the first terrorist group, the Narodnaya Volia. Their goal was not to actually stage a coup but simply to cause strife and chaos in the country, in an effort to cause some sort of change in a desperate situation. While they were eventually disbanded by the government, the overreaction they caused was a contributing factor to the Russian revolutions in the 20th century.

Sound anything like today? Greene certainly seems to think so. Here's the money quote:
We have taken a situation that for us was manageable and stable, and have introduced tremendous insecurity and chaos into the region. The chances for conflict spilling over borders has been greatly increased. We might look back thirty years from now and see something similar to what had happened in Russia. In the end, if such were the case, the attack of 9/11 would have to be considered the most successful military ventures in all of history--based on the size of the attackers and the effects of their action.